Before anything, let’s see: Why climate change is exactly said to be such a great threat in first place?
It rises sea level and alters climate pattern. So?
Well, sea level rise will decrease the land available to humankind and mass-sink whole civilizations on coastal plains. Also climate pattern altering is key factor to imbalance the global food production.
So can’t it be dealt?
May be or may be not. But one thing is certain. Any futuristic solution will need adequate time. Technological advancement is on rise but nowhere, as per the current trend, we are close to solving the climate change effects, which are due a couple of decades from now.
So who will be affected? Everybody?
Yes. Everybody. That’s why scientists and activists across the globe is making the big deal out of it, and it is a big one indeed. But which areas will be the worst affected?
Let’s rewind. Land area will decrease and food production will fall. Where shall the effect be the ugliest? The densely populated countries, which immediately hints to Asia. And which are the ones capable of going to wars?
The South Asia.
The Indian subcontinent although has good trade network and similar historical ties but between the nations, as history tells us, if the situation worsens they wont stop until war outbreak. Top players will be the big nations: China and India, additionally fuelled by Pakistan, Bangladesh and if the need arises then Sri Lanka. Maldives and Indonesia no doubt will be too badly affected being archipelagos.
Even before we talk of extreme situations where islands are vanishing and coast is submerging, the steady effects in near future will lead to drop in food grain production, rise in food prices, extreme stress on existing freshwater resources, worsening of population at the bottom of pyramid, which is a major fraction in these countries. This will eventually give rise to armed conflict. There is still a chance that it may not happen but evolution says species get into conflicts when natural resources are heavily conflicted upon. In the recent version of IPCC’s fifth assessment report released on 31st March 2014 in Yokohama, it has been estimated that even a rise of 1 degree Celsius can bring down the GDP by 3%.
The above factor may still look unconvincing to few people but let’s magnify them further. The major densely populated coastal metro cities will be affected pushing the population away. By 2050 the fisherman community will be affected due to fishes and marine animals getting vulnerable. Wheat production of India and Pakistan will be greatly affected. Maize production in China will be affected as well. The Himalayan river water sharing will create problems between India and Pakistan. Brahmaputra is already in crisis with border disputes involving the triple nations of Bangladesh, China and India. Glaciers will wear out creating floods to worsen the health and hygiene conditions in basins, before dying out and bringing droughts…
OK, you got it. The further delay of our actions to mitigate climate change will only paint a ugly picture. One can still argue that “Hey, come on. Not wars. Definitely not.” But then how worse can a war be when the nature retreats.
What we should know about Climate Change 